Country

Hungary

Subject

The political effects of the European elections

Introduction

The centre-right Fidesz won the European Parliamentary elections in Hungary on the 7th June; the turnout was 36 per cent. The governing Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) came second with 17 per cent of the votes, while the third place was taken by the extreme right Jobbik with 14 per cent. In addition, the Hungarian Democratic Forum (MDF) will send one MEP to Strasbourg with its 5.3 per cent. For the first time since the regime-change, the left-liberal Free Democrat Alliance (SZDSZ) failed to pass the 5 per cent threshold, scoring barely over 2.1 per cent.

Analyses

The elections evidently underscored Fidesz's success. The party took the first place in all the counties of the country and everywhere in Budapest also. In the history of the EP elections no party of any EU member state has ever won by this majority of votes. This signifies the possible increase at the European level in the political weight of its politicians in the conservative European People's Party. Furthermore, this result has brought Fidesz closer to winning the general elections in Hungary.

At the same time, warning signs can also be seen. First of all, the extreme right has become a political reality in Hungary. Ultimately, all the political parties miscalculated the impact of Jobbik. The explanation that a sizeable number of Jobbik voters were "concealed" – did not identify themselves - in the opinion polls is insufficient. While Fidesz lived with the illusion for a while that the radical rightwing could be pacified and linked to the centre right, the MSZP hoped that this group would only weaken the voter base of the Fidesz. The campaign of the SZDSZ implied that the liberals must battle with Jobbik for the status of the third power. The results gave a definitive answer - the MSZP declined into a medium-sized party, and is falling below the level of Jobbik. The liberals were defeated not only by Jobbik and MDF, but also the little known, recently founded new party, (Politics Can Be Different - LMP) as well. The political map of Hungary has changed spectacularly.

The basis of Jobbik's strong showing has various explanations, but there is a new element to be reckoned with - the Hungarian radical rightwing was able to attract a good many votes from the left. The results of the EP elections shows that Jobbik scored best in those counties (Borsod, Heves, Nógrád), which were previously known as socialist strongholds, or where there is notable Roma population. In spite of the remarkably variegated voting base there are already sings that the Hungarian leftwing will do its best to conflate the Hungarian moderate right with the far right. Fidesz must face a new challenge with respect to Jobbik. It must simultaneously reclaim certain issues from the far right, while clearly it must distance itself from the radicals. In the short run Jobbik will probably gain in strength. At the same time, as a non-parliamentary force, its communication opportunities will decrease in the following period. In this context, the unexpected success of a general European phenomenon, a protest vote for radicalism in EP elections, must also be taken into consideration.

Fidesz must prepare for another challenge. The MDF, by passing the necessary 5 per cent hurdle, contradicting all the predictions, has likewise become a potential player in the centre. Predictably, the media, linked to the socialists, with its intellectual and economic commitment to the left, will lose no time in reinforcing the MDF, hoping to create a party able to collect the remaining liberal and the new-green LMP voters (score of 2,6 per cent). This artificial construct - around 10 per cent - aims to collect dissatisfied socialist voters too, thereby trying to prevent Fidesz from attracting their support.

The success of the MDF illustrates another phenomenon, namely the success of a party that is entirely without political commitment. Having begun life under József Antall as a moderate, national conservative party, the MDF has continuously shifted in whichever direction seemed to promise more votes. In the last seven years, it has moved very close to the ruling MSZP, giving it regular parliamentary support, although before that it was in alliance with Fidesz. Its latest success in the EP elections can be attributed to its capacity to make deals with a neo-Protestant congregation which commands a disciplined voter base and with attracting the votes of some pensioners. What it can deliver to its voters is very much an open question.

Since the regime change, the socialists and liberals have never before performed so badly as now. It is still hard to predict whether or not they have touched bottom. But what can be said is that the performance of the socialist–liberal government not only damaged itself, but caused serious harm to the democratic concept of society. The fact that those two parties have been governing the country without the support of the society since 2006, blocking the possibility of early elections, was especially helpful to mobilising right-radical support.

Conclusions

The EP election has brought sweeping success for Fidesz, but also warning signs for the centre right. On the other hand, these signs have arrived early enough for Fidesz to respond to them, before the next Hungarian parliamentary elections. The socialist-liberal government has for all practical purposes collapsed and its insistence on holding onto power is nothing more than desperate temporising. In as much as the centre-right proves capable of responding to these challenges with moderation, however, it can create the right conditions for a new, stable government.