Analysis No. 222.

The political effects of the European elections

11. June, 2009

The centre-right Fidesz won the European Parliamentary elections in Hungary on the 7th June; the turnout was 36 per cent. The governing Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) came second with 17 per cent of the votes, while the third place was taken by the extreme right Jobbik with 14 per cent. In addition, the Hungarian Democratic Forum (MDF) will send one MEP to Strasbourg with its 5.3 per cent. For the first time since the regime-change, the left-liberal Free Democrat Alliance (SZDSZ) failed to pass the 5 per cent threshold, scoring barely over 2.1 per cent.

Analysis No. 221.

The Radical Right

12. May, 2009

In recent weeks it has become one of the most disputed questions of public discourse in Hungary whether the "Movement For a Better Hungary" (Jobbik Magyarországért Mozgalom; hereinafter: Jobbik) will cross the threshold at the European elections of 7 June which would allow it to enter the European Parliament. The radical party is gaining strength according to the most recent public opinion polls.

Analysis No. 220.

Candidacy to the UN Security Council and Human Rights Council

5. May, 2009

It has been a declared objective of the Gyurcsány Government to assure the election of Hungary in the UN Human Rights Council in 2009, and in the UN Security Council in 2011. Hungary's candidacy to these two significant UN bodies implies serious tasks for the Hungarian diplomacy. The elections will provide an image of Hungary's international appreciation and acceptance. Due to the country's present economic and social situation, as well as its international standing, withdrawal of the applications seems to be, for the moment, the only way to avoid probable failure.

Analysis No. 219.

The European Union standing before a juncture Member State

7. April, 2009

The financial and economic crisis has challenged the functioning of the political institutions and, at the same time, the present efficiency of the functioning of democracy. In most of the Member States of the European Union the reinforcement of the contract between the providing State and the society is taking place now: governments are helping out citizens with measures aimed at stimulating the economy, reducing taxes and charges and encouraging consumption. In Hungary, however, the situation is different: the State is in deep trouble, together with its institutions and the society. It is experiencing the failure of transitional democracies: it has no functioning economy, political institutions, society and democracy; it lacks trust and credibility. Probably in the short run it will not be able to leave the track it has been compelled to follow so far.

Analysis No. 218.

Structural deficits in Hungary's functioning as an EU Member State

18. March, 2009

The diplomatic blunder of the Hungarian Prime Minister as he sought to set the pace for Europe from the position of a loser, at the March informal Summit in Brussels, dumbfounded the European public. By defying the rules of diplomacy and neglecting the decisive players he managed to 'achieve' that the EU's leading politicians prefer to keep more and more distance from Hungary. In the institutional system the Hungarian Government cut a poor figure. In parallel, although the Government attempts to keep up the appearance of success through its personal European political contacts, it arrives at nothing more than lobbying for individual interests. The way Hungary's administration and diplomatic institutions are being operated can be characterized by mechanisms based on the old clientele and related modi vivendi.

Analysis No. 217.

Border Dispute

13. March, 2009

On 19 December 2008 Slovenia blocked eleven negotiating chapters at the accession negotiations with Croatia because it is convinced that, in the documents submitted by its neighbour to the negotiations, Croatia is prejudging, directly or indirectly, the borderline still under dispute between the two countries. As a result Croatia, though it had hoped for the conclusion of the accession negotiations this year, could open only one new chapter out of the remaining thirteen. Slovenian Prime Minister Borut Pahor has proposed a meeting with his Croatian counterpart to be held as soon as possible in order to settle the outstanding issues. Ivo Sanader agreed to this on condition that the representatives of the EU could be present at their discussion, too.

Analysis No. 216.

The re-evaluation of the Roma policy in Hungary

18. February, 2009

By the beginning of 2009 it has become obvious that the Roma policy pursued in the past decades, and especially that of the left-liberal government during the last seven years, cannot be continued.

Analysis No. 215.

Implications of the Russian-Ukrainian gas dispute

30. January, 2009

The year of 2009 started with a crisis of gas supply that was more serious than ever before. As of 6 January 2009 throughout almost two weeks Hungary did not see any of the average 37 million cubic meters of gas per day arriving at its territory. Not even the 2006 crisis produced such a precedent: at that time the worst fall-out did not exceed 57 percent.

Analysis No. 214.

Conservative Government in Lithuania

20. January, 2009

The elections held on 26 October 2008 in Lithuania brought victory to the centre-right Homeland Union - Lithuanian Christian Democrats (TS-LKD). The party led by Andrius Kubilius gained 45 mandates out of 141 parliamentary seats. The list of government put together as a result of the coalition negotiations was approved by President Valdas Adamkus on 5 December, on the basis of which the parliament voted confidence in the new cabinet on 10 December.

Analysis No. 210.

Security policy situation

9. January, 2009

It has been almost a year since Benazir Bhutto, the former prime minister and recently returned leader of the Pakistani opposition was assassinated in Rwalpindi on 28, December 2007. Since then, a peaceful transition of power has taken place in Pakistan. The constitutional dictatorship led by Musharraf army chief and president was exchanged for a civic coalition government in democratic elections, in accordance with the regional standards. The developments, at first sight reassuring, are accompanied by dangerous trends in domestic politics, security and the economy as well.

Analysis No. 209.

Hungarian - Slovakian tension

A heated diplomatic battle of words has occurred between Hungary and Slovakia. The latest debate was sparked over police action at a football match in Slovakia, the tension between the two countries has in fact been constant since 2006, when the extremist Slovak National Party became member of the governing coalition in Bratislava.

Analysis No. 208.

Anti-Semitic manifestations hostile to the Hungarian opposition

It is a new phenomenon in Hungarian domestic politics that the Hungarian radical rightwing endeavour to distinguish themselves from the largest opposition party, the Fidesz. The Hungarian opposition is also being attacked from an anti-Semitic angle by the extreme-right.

Analysis No. 207.

The factors behind Barack Obama's election as President

The democrats are in majority in both Houses of Congress; and Obama will have the opportunity to nominate one or two liberal-minded U.S. Supreme Court judges. Thus, all three branches of the government will be controlled by the liberals. It would be a mistake for the Democratic Party to believe that it has received a mandate to push through a radical liberal agenda.

Analysis No. 206.

Ukraine is facing early elections again

Timoshenko is ambitious to get the chair of the Head of State. In case she goes on coalition with the Russian-friendly Party of Regions it is very likely that she will be able to negotiate cheaper gas prices with Russia which could give her a strong background to get presidency.

Analysis No. 205.

The Annual Conferences of the British Labour and the Conservatives

Gordon Brown seems to have solidified his position, at least until next summer, though calls for his replacement might get louder if Labour loses the next by-election in Glenothes in Scotland.

Analysis No. 204.

New scandal around Hungarian secret services

In spite of the NATO and EU membership of the country, Hungarian secret services have come in a context that has in the recent era rather characterized member countries of the former Soviet Union.

Analysis No. 203.

The Parliamentary schedule of the procedure of passing the Hungarian state budget

If there is no preliminary political agreement between the Liberals and Socialists, political uncertainty and instability around the state budget will survive.

Analysis No. 202.

McCain's and Obama's views of the Russian-Georgian conflict and the U.S.-Russian relations

The foreign policy of the United States will not undergo a dramatic change after January 20, 2009. Shifts are possible, even likely, especially in the case of an Obama presidency.

Analysis No. 201.

Suspension of SAPARD payments in Romania

In respect of Romania and Bulgaria, the EU was more permissive regarding the conditions necessary to the membership. The consequences of the unprepared conditions are well to be felt by nowadays.

Analysis No. 200.

Tax reduction programme

The fact that 66% (!) of the population as indicated by the pollsters do not believe that the programme is about de facto tax reductions - amply mirrors the room for manoeuvre Prime Minister Gyurcsány has.

CSIS, July 13, 2010

The Key to Success in Afghanistan

By Andrew C. Kuchins, S. Frederick Starr

A Modern Silk Road Strategy

The Washington Quarterly, July 6, 2010

China's Caution on Afghanistan - Pakistan

Andrew Small

The ongoing crisis in Afghanistan and Pakistan looks like a prime candidate for closer cooperation between the United States and China. There are various broadly shared interests in combating terrorism, containing rising extremism, and supporting the stability of both states.

Understanding War, July 5, 2010

The Irreconcilables: the Haqqani network

By Jeffrey Dressler

The Washington Institute, July 1, 2010

Actions, Not Just Attitudes: A New Paradigm for U.S.-Arab Relations

David Pollock with Cole Bunzel and Curtis Cannon

  June 28, 2010

Veiled Truths

Marc Lynch

The Rise of Political Islam in the West

Chatham House, June 28, 2010

Yemen: Avoiding Freefall

Ginny Hill

Yemen had its moment in the international spotlight six months ago for all the wrong reasons. Despite the sudden attention, the economy is getting worse. There is a danger too that the country could become a safe haven for radicalism and militancy, but hot pursuit might backfire.

  June 24, 2010

America needs an Afghan strategy, not an alibi

By Henry A. Kissinger

A regional diplomacy should seek to establish a framework to insulate Afghanistan from the storms raging around it rather than allow the country to serve as their epicenter.

Le Monde Diplomatique, June 23, 2010

Gaza sinks slowly

by Alain Gresh

Will Israel have to pay a price for its latest assault? Despite international opinion and damage to relations with Turkey and the Arab world, the answer is likely to be no

Stratfor, July 13, 2010

The Caucasus cauldron

George Friedman

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visited some interesting spots over the July 4 weekend. Her itinerary included Poland and Ukraine, both intriguing choices in light of the recent Obama-Medvedev talks in Washington.

  July 13, 2010

Troubles in Turkey's Backyard

BY ALIZA MARCUS

  July 6, 2010

Russia and 2 Neighbors Form Economic Union

By ANDREW E. KRAMER

For Russia, the push for a free trade pact that began during the financial crisis is a change of tack in its economic policies in the former Soviet space.

Jamestown Foundation, July 5, 2010

Interest Surging in Azerbaijani Gas

By: Vladimir Socor

To meet the total demand from EU and non-EU customers, "big gas" offer that would add substantial trans-Caspian volumes from Turkmenistan is the optimal solution.

  July 1, 2010

Spies aside, Moscow has come in from the cold

By Anatol Lieven

Despite stabilising its economy, the Russian administration has come to recognise its failure to foster the kind of economic transformation that would give it the chance of surviving as a major power when its energy exports finally run dry.

Atlantic Council, June 28, 2010

Is Russia Resetting? The Limits of a Petro-State

Robert Manning

It was Dostoevsky who wrote that Russia was regarded as European by Asians and as Asiatic by Europeans. Now it seems Russia is starting to lean toward identifying with Western modernity. But what does this really mean?

JamesTown Foundation, June 24, 2010

The "Putinization" of Ukraine's Security Forces

By: Taras Kuzio

The "Putinization of Ukraine's media policy" is taking place at the same time in Ukraine's siloviki (security forces). Both steps lead Ukraine closer to Kuchma's semi-authoritarian regime and Vladimir Putin's "managed/sovereign democracy" in Russia.

International Crisis Group, June 23, 2010

The Rule of Law in Independent Kosovo

More than two years after declaring independence, Kosovo struggles with uneven rule of law and a weak justice system that is failing its citizens.

European Union, July 13, 2010

EEAS decision - main elements

The "Council decision establishing the organisation and functioning of the European External Action Service" is provided for in the Treaty of Lisbon and is necessary in order to get the EEAS into being. It has to be adopted unanimously by the Member States, the Commission has to agree to it and the European Parliament has to be consulted.

demosEuropa, July 6, 2010

Turning Gaps into Niches. For a new innovation paradigm in Central Europe.

Paweł Zerka (ed.)

Given the transformation of the global economic order as well as ongoing works on European initiatives (e.g. Research & Innovation Plan), Central Europe should start treating innovation seriously.

Foreign Office, July 5, 2010

Britain's Foreign Policy in a Networked World

Foreign Secretary William Hague

Standpoint, July 1, 2010

Europe's Long Road to the Mosque

WALTER LAQUEUR

Optimism with regard to the prospects of multiculturalism (or more recently of integration) usually went hand in hand with optimism concerning the future of Europe and its standing in the world, and it is easy to see why.

  July 1, 2010

Angela Merkel: Another day, another crisis

Editorial

Last night's three rounds of voting did much to restore the drama the German constitution has tried to expunge

CER, June 23, 2010

The euro's reality gap

by Simon Tilford

The eurozone is on an unsustainable path. That is no fault of the markets. It is the result of the gap between European rhetoric and reality. There needs to be an acknowledgement that if the euro is to work it will require greater integration.

STRATFOR, June 22, 2010

Germany and Russia Move Closer

By George Friedman

It should be remembered that the Germans are proposing a Russian security relationship with Europe, not a Russian security relationship with Germany alone

Carnegie Endowment, June 22, 2010

Adding the Union to Russian-European Relations

Dmitri Trenin

The European Union may well emerge from this crisis stronger than before. The opposite, however, is also true.

Project Syndicate, July 13, 2010

The Dollar and the Dragon

Joseph S. Nye

Judging whether economic interdependence produces power requires looking at the balance of asymmetries, not just at one side of the equation. In this case, interdependence has created a "balance of financial terror" analogous to the Cold War, when the US and the Soviet Union never used their potential to destroy each other in a nuclear exchange.

The New Republic, July 6, 2010

How Obama Will Deal With Our Wayward Ally, Turkey

Stephen Sestanovich

It's a shock to see one of the pillars of American foreign policy start to disintegrate before our very eyes. That's what seems to be happening to the relationship between the United States and Turkey, which policymakers in both countries have taken for granted for decades.

Hudson Institute, July 5, 2010

The Officer Krupke Theory of Proliferation

by Christopher Ford

New Paradigms Forum

  July 1, 2010

Up to their old spy tricks again

By Anne Applebaum

Why on earth would the Russian government spend years of its time and millions of its dollars on the education, upkeep and housing of a spy who might someday be able to collect some rumors from a Democratic fundraiser and friend of the Clintons?

RAND, June 23, 2010

Managing Catastrophic North Korea Risks

By Bruce W. Bennett

Many today believe that a North Korean government collapse is a more likely future, especially in light of the instability in North Korea caused by actions like its recent currency devaluation. But even such a scenario may still pose some artillery and nuclear threats to the ROK.

Democracy Journal, June 17, 2010

America 2021: The Military and the World

by The Defense Roundtable

Our largest threat: Pakistan. Our alliances: reshuffled by demographics. Terrorism: on the wane (maybe). New frontier for conflict: the Arctic cirlce. Four experts discuss

The Diplomat, July 13, 2010

South Asia's Nuclear War Risk

By Richard Weitz

China's planned nuclear reactors sale to Pakistan highlights the risk of war on the Subcontinent. It could also increase it.

The New Yorker, July 5, 2010

What if China Had Bought Newsweek?

by Evan Osnos

Much of the discussion about the Newsweek bid has been about the Chinese government's campaign to project "soft power" abroad, and that is relevant. But that is also losing sight of some nuances in the world of Chinese media.

Boston Review, July 1, 2010

The War for Drugs

Sarah Hill

How Juárez became the world's deadliest city

  June 28, 2010

Follow the Renminbi

By BEHZAD YAGHMAIAN

Beijing is using currency revaluation as a part of a larger strategy to change from being a producer of low-value-added exports to a leader in high-tech, green production.

IDSA, June 21, 2010

A China-North Korea-Myanmar "Axis" in the making?

Rajaram Panda

India has a legitimate reason to worry about the military junta's nuclear plan. An axis of sorts seems to be emerging between China, North Korea and Myanmar, which is detrimental to India's interests.

The American Interest, June 17, 2010

Beijing's Islamic Complex

Charles Horner & Eric Brown

Throughout its modern history, Xinjiang, and for that matter China as a whole, has been riddled with inter-ethnic violence. On the face of it not much about last July's violence seemed new.

Chatham House, June 15, 2010

Sustainable Energy Security

Antony Froggatt and Glada Lahn

Strategic risks and opportunities for business

Foreign Policy Centre, June 16, 2010

Tackling the world water crisis: Reshaping the future of foreign policy

Dr David Tickner, Josephine Osikena (Ed.)

The report aims to stimulate discussion and debate amongst a wide ranging audience in an effort to promote the centrality of water on today's foreign policy agenda, particularly in light of the increasing environmental shocks and stresses presented by climate change and global population growth.