Analysis No. 222.

The political effects of the European elections

11. June, 2009

The centre-right Fidesz won the European Parliamentary elections in Hungary on the 7th June; the turnout was 36 per cent. The governing Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) came second with 17 per cent of the votes, while the third place was taken by the extreme right Jobbik with 14 per cent. In addition, the Hungarian Democratic Forum (MDF) will send one MEP to Strasbourg with its 5.3 per cent. For the first time since the regime-change, the left-liberal Free Democrat Alliance (SZDSZ) failed to pass the 5 per cent threshold, scoring barely over 2.1 per cent.

Analysis No. 221.

The Radical Right

12. May, 2009

In recent weeks it has become one of the most disputed questions of public discourse in Hungary whether the "Movement For a Better Hungary" (Jobbik Magyarországért Mozgalom; hereinafter: Jobbik) will cross the threshold at the European elections of 7 June which would allow it to enter the European Parliament. The radical party is gaining strength according to the most recent public opinion polls.

Analysis No. 220.

Candidacy to the UN Security Council and Human Rights Council

5. May, 2009

It has been a declared objective of the Gyurcsány Government to assure the election of Hungary in the UN Human Rights Council in 2009, and in the UN Security Council in 2011. Hungary's candidacy to these two significant UN bodies implies serious tasks for the Hungarian diplomacy. The elections will provide an image of Hungary's international appreciation and acceptance. Due to the country's present economic and social situation, as well as its international standing, withdrawal of the applications seems to be, for the moment, the only way to avoid probable failure.

Analysis No. 219.

The European Union standing before a juncture Member State

7. April, 2009

The financial and economic crisis has challenged the functioning of the political institutions and, at the same time, the present efficiency of the functioning of democracy. In most of the Member States of the European Union the reinforcement of the contract between the providing State and the society is taking place now: governments are helping out citizens with measures aimed at stimulating the economy, reducing taxes and charges and encouraging consumption. In Hungary, however, the situation is different: the State is in deep trouble, together with its institutions and the society. It is experiencing the failure of transitional democracies: it has no functioning economy, political institutions, society and democracy; it lacks trust and credibility. Probably in the short run it will not be able to leave the track it has been compelled to follow so far.

Analysis No. 218.

Structural deficits in Hungary's functioning as an EU Member State

18. March, 2009

The diplomatic blunder of the Hungarian Prime Minister as he sought to set the pace for Europe from the position of a loser, at the March informal Summit in Brussels, dumbfounded the European public. By defying the rules of diplomacy and neglecting the decisive players he managed to 'achieve' that the EU's leading politicians prefer to keep more and more distance from Hungary. In the institutional system the Hungarian Government cut a poor figure. In parallel, although the Government attempts to keep up the appearance of success through its personal European political contacts, it arrives at nothing more than lobbying for individual interests. The way Hungary's administration and diplomatic institutions are being operated can be characterized by mechanisms based on the old clientele and related modi vivendi.

Analysis No. 217.

Border Dispute

13. March, 2009

On 19 December 2008 Slovenia blocked eleven negotiating chapters at the accession negotiations with Croatia because it is convinced that, in the documents submitted by its neighbour to the negotiations, Croatia is prejudging, directly or indirectly, the borderline still under dispute between the two countries. As a result Croatia, though it had hoped for the conclusion of the accession negotiations this year, could open only one new chapter out of the remaining thirteen. Slovenian Prime Minister Borut Pahor has proposed a meeting with his Croatian counterpart to be held as soon as possible in order to settle the outstanding issues. Ivo Sanader agreed to this on condition that the representatives of the EU could be present at their discussion, too.

Analysis No. 216.

The re-evaluation of the Roma policy in Hungary

18. February, 2009

By the beginning of 2009 it has become obvious that the Roma policy pursued in the past decades, and especially that of the left-liberal government during the last seven years, cannot be continued.

Analysis No. 215.

Implications of the Russian-Ukrainian gas dispute

30. January, 2009

The year of 2009 started with a crisis of gas supply that was more serious than ever before. As of 6 January 2009 throughout almost two weeks Hungary did not see any of the average 37 million cubic meters of gas per day arriving at its territory. Not even the 2006 crisis produced such a precedent: at that time the worst fall-out did not exceed 57 percent.

Analysis No. 214.

Conservative Government in Lithuania

20. January, 2009

The elections held on 26 October 2008 in Lithuania brought victory to the centre-right Homeland Union - Lithuanian Christian Democrats (TS-LKD). The party led by Andrius Kubilius gained 45 mandates out of 141 parliamentary seats. The list of government put together as a result of the coalition negotiations was approved by President Valdas Adamkus on 5 December, on the basis of which the parliament voted confidence in the new cabinet on 10 December.

Analysis No. 210.

Security policy situation

9. January, 2009

It has been almost a year since Benazir Bhutto, the former prime minister and recently returned leader of the Pakistani opposition was assassinated in Rwalpindi on 28, December 2007. Since then, a peaceful transition of power has taken place in Pakistan. The constitutional dictatorship led by Musharraf army chief and president was exchanged for a civic coalition government in democratic elections, in accordance with the regional standards. The developments, at first sight reassuring, are accompanied by dangerous trends in domestic politics, security and the economy as well.

Analysis No. 209.

Hungarian - Slovakian tension

A heated diplomatic battle of words has occurred between Hungary and Slovakia. The latest debate was sparked over police action at a football match in Slovakia, the tension between the two countries has in fact been constant since 2006, when the extremist Slovak National Party became member of the governing coalition in Bratislava.

Analysis No. 208.

Anti-Semitic manifestations hostile to the Hungarian opposition

It is a new phenomenon in Hungarian domestic politics that the Hungarian radical rightwing endeavour to distinguish themselves from the largest opposition party, the Fidesz. The Hungarian opposition is also being attacked from an anti-Semitic angle by the extreme-right.

Analysis No. 207.

The factors behind Barack Obama's election as President

The democrats are in majority in both Houses of Congress; and Obama will have the opportunity to nominate one or two liberal-minded U.S. Supreme Court judges. Thus, all three branches of the government will be controlled by the liberals. It would be a mistake for the Democratic Party to believe that it has received a mandate to push through a radical liberal agenda.

Analysis No. 206.

Ukraine is facing early elections again

Timoshenko is ambitious to get the chair of the Head of State. In case she goes on coalition with the Russian-friendly Party of Regions it is very likely that she will be able to negotiate cheaper gas prices with Russia which could give her a strong background to get presidency.

Analysis No. 205.

The Annual Conferences of the British Labour and the Conservatives

Gordon Brown seems to have solidified his position, at least until next summer, though calls for his replacement might get louder if Labour loses the next by-election in Glenothes in Scotland.

Analysis No. 204.

New scandal around Hungarian secret services

In spite of the NATO and EU membership of the country, Hungarian secret services have come in a context that has in the recent era rather characterized member countries of the former Soviet Union.

Analysis No. 203.

The Parliamentary schedule of the procedure of passing the Hungarian state budget

If there is no preliminary political agreement between the Liberals and Socialists, political uncertainty and instability around the state budget will survive.

Analysis No. 202.

McCain's and Obama's views of the Russian-Georgian conflict and the U.S.-Russian relations

The foreign policy of the United States will not undergo a dramatic change after January 20, 2009. Shifts are possible, even likely, especially in the case of an Obama presidency.

Analysis No. 201.

Suspension of SAPARD payments in Romania

In respect of Romania and Bulgaria, the EU was more permissive regarding the conditions necessary to the membership. The consequences of the unprepared conditions are well to be felt by nowadays.

Analysis No. 200.

Tax reduction programme

The fact that 66% (!) of the population as indicated by the pollsters do not believe that the programme is about de facto tax reductions - amply mirrors the room for manoeuvre Prime Minister Gyurcsány has.

openDemocracy, March 10, 2010

Hizbollah vs Israel: the coming clash

Robert G Rabil,

A shifting balance of calculation in the middle east makes Lebanon's Hizbollah movement more confident in its strategy of "deterrence-by-terror" vis-à-vis Israel.

Heritage Foundation, March 9, 2010

Ten Steps to a Free Iran

  March 8, 2010

Europe's Empty Promises

BY CHRISTOPHER S. CHIVVIS

Middle East Progress, March 5, 2010

Understanding U.S.-Syrian Relations

Theodore H. Kattouf, former U.S. ambassador to Syria and the United Arab Emirates; president and CEO, AMIDEAST. Interview with Middle East Bulletin.

German Marshall Fund, March 4, 2010

Turkey-Israel Relations: Where to Next?

Soli Ozel

The periodic crises between Turkey and Israel are more a function of structural causes and the changing strategic environment in the region than the proclivities of the principal actors.

ISN, March 4, 2010

Turkey's Expanding Geopolitical Reach

By Philip McCrum

Since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, Turkey has been unable to convert its regional connections into political influence. But with an ever-growing number of factors converging to endow Turkey with greater regional authority, even domestic squabbles may not prevent the Ottoman phoenix from rising once again.

CSIS, March 2, 2010

Middle East Notes and Comment: Victory over al-Qaeda

By Jon B. Alterman

The conservative forces that are rising in the Muslim world tend to be strongly na­tionalist, scarcely more favorably disposed toward Western governments' poli­cies than al-Qaeda is.

Council on Foreign Relations, March 1, 2010

Pre-Elections, Iraqis Crave Stability

Nir Rosen

Despite tensions in Iraq because of recent violence, the coalition led by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki will probably lead in the March 7 parliamentary election, and Maliki will likely return as prime minister

The Times, March 10, 2010

Vladmir Putin forging ahead with vision of Eurasian empire

By Tony Halpin

The Soviet Union is gradually being rebuilt as Vladimir Putin eyes a return to the Kremlin.

EU-Russia Centre, March 10, 2010

EU-Russia Relations: Beyond Ukraine

by George Bovt

After Victor Yanukovich was elected president of Ukraine, Russia had an opportunity to relax a little over any question of further possible aggravation of bilateral relations with its neighbour.

CER, March 10, 2010

What should NATO's new strategic concept say about Russia?

by Tomas Valasek

The alliance's new strategic concept - its key guiding document, an update of which is due in the autumn - will not fundamentally change Russia's views.

Demos Europa, March 9, 2010

Yanukovich should not be an alibi for the EU

Paweł Zerka

Poland should put aside its political sympathies and reinforce its position of  a bridge linking Ukraine with Europe.

The St Petersburg Times, March 8, 2010

Finlandization of Georgia and Ukraine

By Ronald D. Asmus

What is the most important source of disagreement today between Russia and the West? It is not the issues most often in the news - Iran or Afghanistan. It is Europe's contested neighborhood: the future of those countries between the eastern border of NATO and the European Union and the western border of Russia.

  March 5, 2010

Putin and Europe on the Same Crisis Page

Boris Kagarlitsky is director of the Institute of Globalization Studies.

The ruling elite of Western Europe will survive the current wave of strikes and will keep their current economic policies intact. The problem, however, is not with the strikes or acts of resistance but with the policy itself because it is unable to resolve new problems.

SWP, March 4, 2010

Toward a New Start

by Margarete Klein

Approaches to a strategic partnership between NATO and Russia

International Centre for Policy Studies, March 4, 2010

A New Foreign Policy for Ukraine

Olga Shumylo and Aliona Hetmanchuk

Russia in Global Affairs, March 3, 2010

"Everything must be carried through to the end"

Mikhail Gorbachev

Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev, the main initiator of change in Europe in the late 1980s, spoke with Fyodor Lukyanov about how he views those changes 20 years later.

  March 3, 2010

Dragging up the past

The arrest of a Bosnian war leader threatens to reopen deep wounds in the Balkans

The   March 2, 2010

Army Ebbs, and Power Realigns in Turkey

By SABRINA TAVERNISE

The detention of top military officers in Turkey last week was nothing less than a quiet piece of history. The military, long considered untouchable in Turkey, was pushed from its political pedestal with startling finality.

B92, March 1, 2010

Jeremic: U.S., Serbia stability factors in region

Serbian Minister of Foreign Affairs Vuk Jeremic delivered a lecture on Thursday at the Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) in Washington.

SPIEGEL, March 10, 2010

Walking the Thin Line with Catherine Ashton

By Walter Mayr

European Union Foreign Policy

Christian Science Monitor, March 10, 2010

The Greek debt crisis: How the international community can help

By George Papandreou

To help end the Greek debt crisis Europe and America must jointly step in to shore up global financial regulation.

Project Syndicate, March 10, 2010

The Dutch Retreat

Ian Buruma

The Dutch army has been operating as part of NATO in a remote and unruly part of Afghanistan since 2006.

European Policy Centre, March 9, 2010

Europe 2020: better - but still not good enough

by Fabian Zuleeg

On the positive side it makes concrete proposals, gives seven flagship initiatives and includes education within its scope. On the negative side its rational for the targets set is unclear, it is too dependent on Member State political will, does not integrate public finance and reform and has weak delivery mechanisms.

The Times, March 8, 2010

The pound will rise as the euro heads south

Bill Emmott is a former editor of The Economist

Political uncertainty is holding back sterling. But it's a sure thing that the eurozone has a rough time ahead

STRATFOR, March 5, 2010

Greece: Wishful Budgeting - Take Two

Greece's Cabinet has decided to implement new austerity measures in an attempt to reduce its budget deficit by an additional 4.8 billion euros, government officials close to the Cabinet say. However, the move may only be intended by Athens to give it room to breathe for the next few months.

European Council for Foreign Relations, March 4, 2010

The new Europe

By Ulrike Guérot

The idea (European Service for External Action) isn't to replace national policy with European policy, but, more fundamentally, to ensure domestic services compliment European ones.

SPIEGEL, March 3, 2010

The EU's Foreign Service Apparatus

By Matthias Gebauer and Carsten Volkery

Berlin Concerned about British Dominance

CEPS, March 2, 2010

Capital Brussels: What kind of political actor will the Lisbon EU be?

By Piotr Maciej Kaczyński and Adriaan Schout

Despite all the changes introduced in the EU over the last year, 2009 will not be remembered as the year in which 'Brussels' fell apart.

SWP, March 1, 2010

Empowering EU Diplomacy

by Martin Kremer, Julia Lieb

The European External Action Service as an opportunity for EU foreign policy

German Marshall Fund, March 1, 2010

Mediterranean Natural Gas: Greater Supply, Less Interdependence?

Franco Zallio, Senior Consultant, Paralleli

In order to diversify supply, the EU will rely more heavily on LNG than on new gas pipelines for imports. These trends may not favor Euro-Mediterranean energy interactions. Future Euro-Mediterranean relations could depend more and more on economic interests rather than energy interdependence.

  March 1, 2010

Europe's Parliament Takes a Stand

BY HENRY FARRELL, ABRAHAM NEWMAN

Hudson, March 9, 2010

Waiting for Obama's Policy on Nukes

by Christopher Ford

Obama seeks a modest new arms-reduction treaty with Russia but contemplates cuts that would not have been too shocking from the Bush administration

  March 8, 2010

Where are Obama's foreign confidants?

By Jackson Diehl

Obama's following means that, in democratic countries at least, leaders have a strong incentive to befriend him. And yet this president appears, so far, to have no genuine foreign friends.

Standpoint, March 2, 2010

The Time to Act on WMD Terror is Now

WALTER LAQUEUR

Under Clinton and Bush, the main role in combating terrorism had been allocated to the military, but it was not really prepared for this task either by training or by the specific knowledge needed for this assignment.

The Chicago Council, March 1, 2010

Engaging Religious Communities Abroad: A New Imperative for U.S. Foreign Policy

R. Scott Appleby and Richard Cizik, Cochairs

The Atlantic, February 19, 2010

Cyber Warriors

by James Fallows

Attacks - not just from China but from Russia and elsewhere - on America's electronic networks cost millions of dollars and could in the extreme cause the collapse of financial life, the halt of most manufacturing systems, and the evaporation of all the data and knowledge stored on the Internet.

US Department of Defense, February 2, 2010

Quadrennial Defense Review

Report February

  March 9, 2010

Does foreign policy need religion?

Gerard Russell

For the past 50 years statecraft has ignored religion - but it is a global force we must harness to create a fairer world order

  March 9, 2010

Think Again: China's Military

BY DREW THOMPSON

Slate, March 5, 2010

Shaken, but Not Broken

By Anne Applebaum

Chile will survive the earthquake because its democracy works.

American Enterprise Institute, March 4, 2010

Is It Time to Ding Beijing?

By Philip I. Levy

There is a growing drumbeat to do something about China's undervalued currency.

SIPRI, March 2, 2010

CHINA PREPARES FOR AN ICE-FREE ARCTIC

Linda Jakobson

Policy makers not only in China but across Asia, Europe and North America are turning their attention to the region in order to assess this transformation and its economic, territorial and geo polit ical implications.

  March 2, 2010

Frostbitten

Lawrence D. Freedman

Decoding the Cold War, 20 Years Later

Hudson Institute, March 1, 2010

The Slippery Nature of Secrets

by Gabriel Schoenfeld

Book review of Robert Jervis' Why Intelligence Fails

SWP, February 24, 2010

Military Trends in China

by Sophie-Charlotte Brune, Sascha Lange, Janka Oertel

Modernising and Internationalising the People's Liberation Army

Spectator, February 15, 2010

Is the age of democracy over?

Francis Fukuyama

Twenty years ago, Francis Fukuyama forecast the final triumph of liberal democracy and the 'end of history'. As pro-democracy movements falter from Ukraine to China, he revisits his thesis - and asks if history has a few more surprises to spring

ISN, February 15, 2010

China, A Great Power Like Any Other

Harsh V Pant

A superpower is a superpower, and it is time to shed the sophomoric naivety that has surprisingly upheld the belief that China's ascent to power will be any different; power is necessarily expansionist.