Budapest Analyses

Elemzések, publikációk

Analysis No. 222.

Az európai parlamenti választások politikai hatása

2009. június 11.

A június 7-ei EP választásokat Magyarországon - 36 %-os részvétel mellett - a jobbközép Fidesz nyerte a szavazatok több mint 56%-val. Második lett a kormányzó Magyar Szocialista Párt (MSZP) 17%-kal, harmadik a szélsojobboldali Jobbik 14%-kal. Mandátumot szerzett még Magyar Demokrata Fórum 5, 3%-kal. A rendszerváltás óta eloször szerzett 5%-nál kevesebb szavazatot a liberális Szabad Demokraták Szövetsége (SZDSZ), a pártra leadott voksok alig haladják meg a 2,1%-ot.

Analysis No. 221.

A radikális jobboldal

2009. május 12.

Az utóbbi hetekben a magyar közélet egyik legvitatottabb témája az, hogy a radikális jobboldali nézetek valló "Jobbik Magyarországért Mozgalom" a június 7-ei választásokon átlépi-e azt a küszöböt, amellyel bejut az Európai Parlamentbe. A radikális párt a legújabb közvélemény-kutatások alapján erosödik.

Analysis No. 220.

Pályázás a nemzetközi szervezetekben

2009. május 5.

A Gyurcsány-kormány meghirdetett célja volt, hogy 2009-ben az Emberi Jogi Tanácsba és 2011-ben a Biztonsági Tanácsba válasszák be Magyarországot. E két jelentos ENSZ szervezetbe történo jelöltség komoly feladatok elé állítja a magyar diplomáciát. A választások képet adnak Magyarország nemzetközi megítélésérol és elfogadottságáról. Az ország gazdasági és társadalmi állapota valamint Magyarország nemzetközi megítélése miatt a jelen pillanatban a jelölések visszavonása a valószínu kudarc elkerülésének egyetlen lehetséges módja.

Analysis No. 219.

Fordulat előtt áll az Európai Unió

2009. április 7.

A pénzügyi és gazdasági válság a politikai intézményrendszer működését és vele együtt a demokrácia működésének jelenlegi hatékonyságát is megkérdőjelezte. Az Európai Unió legtöbb tagállamában az állam és társadalma közötti szerződés, gondoskodás megerősítése zajlik: kormányok segítnek állampolgáraikon gazdaságélénkítő, adó- és járulékcsökkentő és vásárlást ösztönző intézkedésekkel. Magyarországon azonban más a helyzet, az állam bajban van, intézményeivel és társadalmával együtt. Az átmeneti demokráciák kudarcát éli: nincs muködő gazdasága, politikai intézményrendszere, társadalma, demokráciája; nincs bizalom, és nincs hitelesség. Az eddigi kötött pályáról rövid távon valószínűleg még nem tud letérni.

Analysis No. 218.

Strukturális hiányosságok Magyarország mint EU tagállam működésében

2009. március 18.

A magyar kormányfő diplomáciai baklövése, ahogy a márciusi informális brüsszeli csúcstalálkozón vesztes pozícióból igyekezett ütemet diktálni Európának, meghökkentette az európai közvéleményt. A diplomáciai szabályok felrúgásával, a meghatározó szereplők negligálásával sikerült elérnie, hogy az EU vezető politikusai egyre nagyobb távolságot tartanak Magyarországtól; az intézményes rendszerben a magyar kormányzat leszerepelt.

Analysis No. 217.

Határvita

2009. március 13.

Szlovénia tavaly december 19-én 11 fejezet tárgyalását blokkolta Horvátország csatlakozási tárgyalásain azért, mert meggyozodése szerint szomszédja a tárgyalásokon felhasznált dokumentumokban közvetve vagy közvetlenül prejudikálja a két ország között még mindig vitatott határt.

Közel-Kelet - Middle East

Times, February 8, 2010

Will Tehran choose the Tiananmen solution?

Amir Taheri

This week on Iran's streets we'll learn how much blood the regime is willing to spill - and how tough the West can afford to be

American, February 5, 2010

Germany Puts Up Its Dukes?

By Gary Schmitt and Philipp Tomio

The German government has slowly begun to accept the reality that, to save Afghanistan from the return of Taliban rule, some real fighting will have to take place.

New Yorker, February 4, 2010

Direct Quotes: Bashar Assad

Syria, which is on the State Department's list of state sponsors of terrorism, had renewed its sharing of intelligence on terrorism with the C.I.A. and with Britain's MI6

Commentary Magazine, February 4, 2010

Taking Tea with the Taliban

Michael Rubin

Addressing the nation on December 1, 2009, President Barack Obama laid out the case for an augmented American presence in Afghanistan to battle the Taliban forces seeking to push their way back into power.

The Washington Quarterly, Februray 3, 2010

The Sorcerer's Apprentice: Islamist Militancy in South Asia

Sumit Ganguly and S. Paul Kapur

Many high-profile terrorist incidentsm have had direct connections to individuals and groups operating in Pakistan.

ISN, February 2, 2010

Wrong Focus in Yemen

Dr Dominic Moran

Increasing direct military support to the Yemeni government is unlikely to bring the intended consequences

February 1, 2010

The hubris of a tragic hero who fell for the Enlightenment myth

Bruce Anderson

The illusion that it's possible to reshape human nature seduces too many intellectuals

Chatham House, February 1, 2010

Conceptualizing AfPak: The Prospects and Perils

Ayesha R Khan

The strategy lacks implementation mechanisms and analysis of the border region to manage the insurgency and quell the violence. Its contradictions, anomalies and structural flaws risk further destabilizing the borderland region.

Kelet-Európa - East Europe

JamesTown blog, February, 8, 2010

Ukraine Preliminary Election Results

by Tammy Lynch

So, what might Tymoshenko do?

ISN, February 8, 2010

Buying Remorse for Srebrenica

Anes Alic

Serbia is mulling over a resolution expressing remorse for the massacre in the Bosnian town of Srebrenica. This time, EU accession aspirations may prove a big enough incentive to make it happen.

openDemocracy, February 5, 2010

Europe's role in losing Ukraine

Fabrizio Tassinari

Enlargement fatigue in the EU has meant that since the Orange Revolution Ukraine has been offered no real prospect of joining Europe

STRATFOR/B92, February 3, 2010

Kosovo: NATO's troop reduction

NATO's Kosovo Force (KFOR) on Feb. 1 formally reduced its troop levels from approximately 12,600 to 10,000.

February 2, 2010

US-Russia arms control treaty talks resume

Luke Harding and Daniel Nasaw

Geneva meeting works towards finding successor to 40-year-old Start 1 weapons reduction agreement, which expired last year

STRATFOR, January 27, 2010

Ukraine's election and Russian resurgence

Peter Zeihan

Ukrainians go to the polls Feb. 7 to choose their next president. The last time they did this, in November 2004, the result was the prolonged international incident that became known as the Orange Revolution.

RFE/RL, January 26, 2010

UN Warns Of Tensions In Kosovo's Northern Territory

By Nikola Krastev

The UN's special representative for Kosovo reports that peace in the country's north remains fragile and tensions are high between ethnic Serbs and ethnic Albanians

Standpoint, January 20, 2010

Last Cake With A Russian Agent

BEN JUDAH

The reason there was no war in Georgia this summer is that Vice-President Biden's speech showed US resolve and it frightened the Kremlin. However the greatest threat is the fact that Putin is not completely in control of the agents, clans and factions of the army and the secret services.

German Marshall Foundation, January 14, 2009

Security Choices After the Election: New Direction for Ukraine?

Joseph R. Wood

The most logical course for Ukrainian security policy is to continue military reform and modernization at a measured pace.

Európa - Europe

Eurozine, February 8, 2010

Welfare state building in post-communist EU member states

Claus Offe

Lessons learned and open questions

February 8, 2010

Europe's Identity Crisis

By PINCHAS GOLDSCHMIDT is chief rabbi of Moscow

The key to the success of integration and acculturation of Europe's immigrants is dependent on their integration into the public school system and later into the universities and workforce.

European Energy Review, February 5, 2010

The competition case against Gazprom

Iana Dreyer

EU must use antitrust law to reduce its dependence on Russian gas

European Policy Centre, February 5, 2010

Addressing Europe's employment crisis: what policies for recovery and reform?

Sotiria Theodoropoulou

Unemployment in the EU is forecast to soar above 10% in 2010, while recovery is projected to be fragile for a number of years.

Real Instituto Elcano, February 4, 2010

The Expanding European Union: How to Evaluate the Policy?

Graham Avery

What Prospects for Spain's Presidency?

Clingendael, February 4, 2010

The Limits of China's Soft Power in Europe

Ingrid d'Hooghe

Beijing's Public Diplomacy Puzzle

CER, February 4, 2010

How should Europe respond to China's strident rise?

by Charles Grant

Until very recently, many western politicians, bankers and business people were broadly optimistic about the rise of China.

Times, February 3, 2010

The case for defence

A Ministry of Defence Green Paper, published today, anticipates cuts in the military budget. But Britain cannot compromise its position in the world

EUobserver, February 3, 2010

Lifting the EU arms embargo on China: cui bono?

IVANA OKLESTKOVA AND THOMAS BONDIGUEL

It has been five years since the EU last seriously considered lifting the arms embargo on China. Now the topic is back in vogue: last week, the Spanish foreign minister Angel Miguel Moratinos announced that his country's EU presidency was willing to open the question once again.

February 2, 2010

Next, the Tactical Nukes

By CARL BILDT and RADEK SIKORSKI

We hope that we will very soon have reason to welcome a new agreement between the United States and Russia on further reductions of strategic nuclear weapons.

February 2, 2010

Remarks on the Future of European Security

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton speaks at France's L'Ecole Militaire on Jan. 29, 2010.

CEPS, February 2, 2010

Greek burdens ensure some Pigs won't fly

By Daniel Gros

Financial markets have coined a new term to sum up troubled eurozone states: the "Pigs". Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain have found their bonds moving together, with Greece and its troubles a bellwether for the entire group.

Project Syndicate, January 27, 2010

Redesigning European Energy Security

William Martin and Jonathan Gillman

The absence of a European 'grand strategy,' together with the way Europeans undercut each other, leaves these issues unresolved, and in some cases exacerbates the problems.

Centre For European Reform, January 26, 2010

Can Turkey combine EU accession and regional leadership?

By Katinka Barysch

The looming deadlock in Turkey's EU accession bid stands in contrast with its increasingly active role in the Middle East, the Caucasus and Central Asia. Over the last few years, Turkey has built stronger links with its neighbours and sought to become a regional peace-maker and mediator.

Centrum Europejskie Natolin, January 13, 2010

The Russian Factor in the Policy of the European Union Towards International Crises

By Marcin Kaczmarski

Egyesült Államok - United States

Chatham House, February 8, 2010

Obama's Foreign Policy and the Road Ahead

HE Louis Susman, Ambassador of the United States of America to the United Kingdom

Achievements and Challenges

The Nation, February 5, 2010

The Expanding US War in Pakistan

By Jeremy Scahill

As the situation in Pakistan becomes more volatile and the US military presence in the country expands, it will become increasingly difficult for the Obama administration to downplay or deny the reality that a US war in Pakistan is already underway.

February 4, 2010

Currency Dispute Likely to Further Fray U.S.-China Ties

By MARK LANDLER

To the growing list of grievances between the United States and China, add one more: the Obama administration is reviving American pressure on China to stop artificially depressing its currency, a policy that fuels its persistent trade gap with the United States.

Foerign Affairs, February 3, 2010

Obama's Tango

Christopher Sabatini and Jason Marczak

Restoring U.S. Leadership in Latin America

US Department of Defense, February 2, 2010

Quadrennial Defense Review

Report February

American Enterprise Institute, January 28, 2010

Bam, Wake Up and Smell the War

By John R. Bolton

The evidence is mounting that President Obama is following not merely an erroneous anti-terrorism strategy, but one that is increasingly incoherent and incompetent.

The New Republic, January 27, 2010

There Will Be Oil

Michael Makovsky, foreign policy director of the Bipartisan Policy Center, was a special assistant for Iraqi oil policy in the Office of the Secretary of Defense from 2002 to 2006.

Iraq's very important, very unpredictable recent petrol deal.

RAND, January 26, 2010

Terrorists Will Strike America Again

By Gregory F. Treverton

The Obama administration's mea culpa over the failure to prevent the attempted bombing of a U.S. airliner bound for Detroit on Christmas Day is understandable but misses the point.

January 25, 2010

Witness to Horror

By Charles Simic

The National Journal, January 22, 2010

U.S. Versus Europe: No Winner

by Clive Crook

Which has the superior model? It turns out that each side has things to teach the other

Congressional Reaserach Service, January 18, 2010

Terrorist Watchlist Checks and Air Passenger Prescreening

CRS Report for Congress

Considerable controversy surrounds U.S. air passenger prescreening processes and terrorist

Nemzetközi ügyek - World Affairs

Boston, February 8, 2010

Dazzled by Asia

By Joshua Kurlantzick

When will China lead the world? Don't hold your breath.

Cato Institute, February 5, 2010

Globalization: Curse or Cure?

by Jagadeesh Gokhale

Policies to Harness Global Economic Integration to Solve Our Economic Challenge

February 4, 2010

Nuclear arms will soon proliferate

Timothy Garton Ash

So here's a plan to scrap them all

London Review of Books, January 28, 2010

Sinomania

Perry Anderson

Alternative modernities, so conceived, are cultural, not structural: they differentiate not social systems, but sets of values - typically, a distinctive combination of morality and sensibility, making up a certain national "style" of life.

SWP, February 1, 2010

Countdown in Sudan

by Wibke Hansen and Annette Weber

Between Compromise and War - Scenarios until 2011

Christian Science Monitor, January 27, 2010

African leaders are finally solving African problems

Wangari Maathai

While other international efforts have failed to resolve conflict in long-troubled Sudan, a special African Union commission is poised for a breakthrough.

Times, January 22, 2010