Analysis No. 222.

Az európai parlamenti választások politikai hatása

2009. június 11.

A június 7-ei EP választásokat Magyarországon - 36 %-os részvétel mellett - a jobbközép Fidesz nyerte a szavazatok több mint 56%-val. Második lett a kormányzó Magyar Szocialista Párt (MSZP) 17%-kal, harmadik a szélsojobboldali Jobbik 14%-kal. Mandátumot szerzett még Magyar Demokrata Fórum 5, 3%-kal. A rendszerváltás óta eloször szerzett 5%-nál kevesebb szavazatot a liberális Szabad Demokraták Szövetsége (SZDSZ), a pártra leadott voksok alig haladják meg a 2,1%-ot.

Analysis No. 221.

A radikális jobboldal

2009. május 12.

Az utóbbi hetekben a magyar közélet egyik legvitatottabb témája az, hogy a radikális jobboldali nézetek valló "Jobbik Magyarországért Mozgalom" a június 7-ei választásokon átlépi-e azt a küszöböt, amellyel bejut az Európai Parlamentbe. A radikális párt a legújabb közvélemény-kutatások alapján erosödik.

Analysis No. 220.

Pályázás a nemzetközi szervezetekben

2009. május 5.

A Gyurcsány-kormány meghirdetett célja volt, hogy 2009-ben az Emberi Jogi Tanácsba és 2011-ben a Biztonsági Tanácsba válasszák be Magyarországot. E két jelentos ENSZ szervezetbe történo jelöltség komoly feladatok elé állítja a magyar diplomáciát. A választások képet adnak Magyarország nemzetközi megítélésérol és elfogadottságáról. Az ország gazdasági és társadalmi állapota valamint Magyarország nemzetközi megítélése miatt a jelen pillanatban a jelölések visszavonása a valószínu kudarc elkerülésének egyetlen lehetséges módja.

Analysis No. 219.

Fordulat előtt áll az Európai Unió

2009. április 7.

A pénzügyi és gazdasági válság a politikai intézményrendszer működését és vele együtt a demokrácia működésének jelenlegi hatékonyságát is megkérdőjelezte. Az Európai Unió legtöbb tagállamában az állam és társadalma közötti szerződés, gondoskodás megerősítése zajlik: kormányok segítnek állampolgáraikon gazdaságélénkítő, adó- és járulékcsökkentő és vásárlást ösztönző intézkedésekkel. Magyarországon azonban más a helyzet, az állam bajban van, intézményeivel és társadalmával együtt. Az átmeneti demokráciák kudarcát éli: nincs muködő gazdasága, politikai intézményrendszere, társadalma, demokráciája; nincs bizalom, és nincs hitelesség. Az eddigi kötött pályáról rövid távon valószínűleg még nem tud letérni.

Analysis No. 218.

Strukturális hiányosságok Magyarország mint EU tagállam működésében

2009. március 18.

A magyar kormányfő diplomáciai baklövése, ahogy a márciusi informális brüsszeli csúcstalálkozón vesztes pozícióból igyekezett ütemet diktálni Európának, meghökkentette az európai közvéleményt. A diplomáciai szabályok felrúgásával, a meghatározó szereplők negligálásával sikerült elérnie, hogy az EU vezető politikusai egyre nagyobb távolságot tartanak Magyarországtól; az intézményes rendszerben a magyar kormányzat leszerepelt.

Analysis No. 217.

Határvita

2009. március 13.

Szlovénia tavaly december 19-én 11 fejezet tárgyalását blokkolta Horvátország csatlakozási tárgyalásain azért, mert meggyozodése szerint szomszédja a tárgyalásokon felhasznált dokumentumokban közvetve vagy közvetlenül prejudikálja a két ország között még mindig vitatott határt.

CSIS, July 13, 2010

The Key to Success in Afghanistan

By Andrew C. Kuchins, S. Frederick Starr

A Modern Silk Road Strategy

The Washington Quarterly, July 6, 2010

China's Caution on Afghanistan - Pakistan

Andrew Small

The ongoing crisis in Afghanistan and Pakistan looks like a prime candidate for closer cooperation between the United States and China. There are various broadly shared interests in combating terrorism, containing rising extremism, and supporting the stability of both states.

Understanding War, July 5, 2010

The Irreconcilables: the Haqqani network

By Jeffrey Dressler

The Washington Institute, July 1, 2010

Actions, Not Just Attitudes: A New Paradigm for U.S.-Arab Relations

David Pollock with Cole Bunzel and Curtis Cannon

  June 28, 2010

Veiled Truths

Marc Lynch

The Rise of Political Islam in the West

Chatham House, June 28, 2010

Yemen: Avoiding Freefall

Ginny Hill

Yemen had its moment in the international spotlight six months ago for all the wrong reasons. Despite the sudden attention, the economy is getting worse. There is a danger too that the country could become a safe haven for radicalism and militancy, but hot pursuit might backfire.

  June 24, 2010

America needs an Afghan strategy, not an alibi

By Henry A. Kissinger

A regional diplomacy should seek to establish a framework to insulate Afghanistan from the storms raging around it rather than allow the country to serve as their epicenter.

Le Monde Diplomatique, June 23, 2010

Gaza sinks slowly

by Alain Gresh

Will Israel have to pay a price for its latest assault? Despite international opinion and damage to relations with Turkey and the Arab world, the answer is likely to be no

Stratfor, July 13, 2010

The Caucasus cauldron

George Friedman

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visited some interesting spots over the July 4 weekend. Her itinerary included Poland and Ukraine, both intriguing choices in light of the recent Obama-Medvedev talks in Washington.

  July 13, 2010

Troubles in Turkey's Backyard

BY ALIZA MARCUS

  July 6, 2010

Russia and 2 Neighbors Form Economic Union

By ANDREW E. KRAMER

For Russia, the push for a free trade pact that began during the financial crisis is a change of tack in its economic policies in the former Soviet space.

Jamestown Foundation, July 5, 2010

Interest Surging in Azerbaijani Gas

By: Vladimir Socor

To meet the total demand from EU and non-EU customers, "big gas" offer that would add substantial trans-Caspian volumes from Turkmenistan is the optimal solution.

  July 1, 2010

Spies aside, Moscow has come in from the cold

By Anatol Lieven

Despite stabilising its economy, the Russian administration has come to recognise its failure to foster the kind of economic transformation that would give it the chance of surviving as a major power when its energy exports finally run dry.

Atlantic Council, June 28, 2010

Is Russia Resetting? The Limits of a Petro-State

Robert Manning

It was Dostoevsky who wrote that Russia was regarded as European by Asians and as Asiatic by Europeans. Now it seems Russia is starting to lean toward identifying with Western modernity. But what does this really mean?

JamesTown Foundation, June 24, 2010

The "Putinization" of Ukraine's Security Forces

By: Taras Kuzio

The "Putinization of Ukraine's media policy" is taking place at the same time in Ukraine's siloviki (security forces). Both steps lead Ukraine closer to Kuchma's semi-authoritarian regime and Vladimir Putin's "managed/sovereign democracy" in Russia.

International Crisis Group, June 23, 2010

The Rule of Law in Independent Kosovo

More than two years after declaring independence, Kosovo struggles with uneven rule of law and a weak justice system that is failing its citizens.

European Union, July 13, 2010

EEAS decision - main elements

The "Council decision establishing the organisation and functioning of the European External Action Service" is provided for in the Treaty of Lisbon and is necessary in order to get the EEAS into being. It has to be adopted unanimously by the Member States, the Commission has to agree to it and the European Parliament has to be consulted.

demosEuropa, July 6, 2010

Turning Gaps into Niches. For a new innovation paradigm in Central Europe.

Paweł Zerka (ed.)

Given the transformation of the global economic order as well as ongoing works on European initiatives (e.g. Research & Innovation Plan), Central Europe should start treating innovation seriously.

Foreign Office, July 5, 2010

Britain's Foreign Policy in a Networked World

Foreign Secretary William Hague

Standpoint, July 1, 2010

Europe's Long Road to the Mosque

WALTER LAQUEUR

Optimism with regard to the prospects of multiculturalism (or more recently of integration) usually went hand in hand with optimism concerning the future of Europe and its standing in the world, and it is easy to see why.

  July 1, 2010

Angela Merkel: Another day, another crisis

Editorial

Last night's three rounds of voting did much to restore the drama the German constitution has tried to expunge

CER, June 23, 2010

The euro's reality gap

by Simon Tilford

The eurozone is on an unsustainable path. That is no fault of the markets. It is the result of the gap between European rhetoric and reality. There needs to be an acknowledgement that if the euro is to work it will require greater integration.

STRATFOR, June 22, 2010

Germany and Russia Move Closer

By George Friedman

It should be remembered that the Germans are proposing a Russian security relationship with Europe, not a Russian security relationship with Germany alone

Carnegie Endowment, June 22, 2010

Adding the Union to Russian-European Relations

Dmitri Trenin

The European Union may well emerge from this crisis stronger than before. The opposite, however, is also true.

Project Syndicate, July 13, 2010

The Dollar and the Dragon

Joseph S. Nye

Judging whether economic interdependence produces power requires looking at the balance of asymmetries, not just at one side of the equation. In this case, interdependence has created a "balance of financial terror" analogous to the Cold War, when the US and the Soviet Union never used their potential to destroy each other in a nuclear exchange.

The New Republic, July 6, 2010

How Obama Will Deal With Our Wayward Ally, Turkey

Stephen Sestanovich

It's a shock to see one of the pillars of American foreign policy start to disintegrate before our very eyes. That's what seems to be happening to the relationship between the United States and Turkey, which policymakers in both countries have taken for granted for decades.

Hudson Institute, July 5, 2010

The Officer Krupke Theory of Proliferation

by Christopher Ford

New Paradigms Forum

  July 1, 2010

Up to their old spy tricks again

By Anne Applebaum

Why on earth would the Russian government spend years of its time and millions of its dollars on the education, upkeep and housing of a spy who might someday be able to collect some rumors from a Democratic fundraiser and friend of the Clintons?

RAND, June 23, 2010

Managing Catastrophic North Korea Risks

By Bruce W. Bennett

Many today believe that a North Korean government collapse is a more likely future, especially in light of the instability in North Korea caused by actions like its recent currency devaluation. But even such a scenario may still pose some artillery and nuclear threats to the ROK.

Democracy Journal, June 17, 2010

America 2021: The Military and the World

by The Defense Roundtable

Our largest threat: Pakistan. Our alliances: reshuffled by demographics. Terrorism: on the wane (maybe). New frontier for conflict: the Arctic cirlce. Four experts discuss

The Diplomat, July 13, 2010

South Asia's Nuclear War Risk

By Richard Weitz

China's planned nuclear reactors sale to Pakistan highlights the risk of war on the Subcontinent. It could also increase it.

The New Yorker, July 5, 2010

What if China Had Bought Newsweek?

by Evan Osnos

Much of the discussion about the Newsweek bid has been about the Chinese government's campaign to project "soft power" abroad, and that is relevant. But that is also losing sight of some nuances in the world of Chinese media.

Boston Review, July 1, 2010

The War for Drugs

Sarah Hill

How Juárez became the world's deadliest city

  June 28, 2010

Follow the Renminbi

By BEHZAD YAGHMAIAN

Beijing is using currency revaluation as a part of a larger strategy to change from being a producer of low-value-added exports to a leader in high-tech, green production.

IDSA, June 21, 2010

A China-North Korea-Myanmar "Axis" in the making?

Rajaram Panda

India has a legitimate reason to worry about the military junta's nuclear plan. An axis of sorts seems to be emerging between China, North Korea and Myanmar, which is detrimental to India's interests.

The American Interest, June 17, 2010

Beijing's Islamic Complex

Charles Horner & Eric Brown

Throughout its modern history, Xinjiang, and for that matter China as a whole, has been riddled with inter-ethnic violence. On the face of it not much about last July's violence seemed new.

Chatham House, June 15, 2010

Sustainable Energy Security

Antony Froggatt and Glada Lahn

Strategic risks and opportunities for business

Foreign Policy Centre, June 16, 2010

Tackling the world water crisis: Reshaping the future of foreign policy

Dr David Tickner, Josephine Osikena (Ed.)

The report aims to stimulate discussion and debate amongst a wide ranging audience in an effort to promote the centrality of water on today's foreign policy agenda, particularly in light of the increasing environmental shocks and stresses presented by climate change and global population growth.